How the prediction engine works
Come Sports’s cricket prediction engine combines historical data, current form, and contextual factors to generate match win probabilities and fantasy captain recommendations. The engine processes data from over 5,000 T20 matches and updates its models after every match.
The engine considers 47 variables for each prediction: team form (last 5 matches), player form (last 5 matches), head-to-head records, venue history, weather conditions, pitch report, and captain/vice-captain history.
The prediction output is a match win probability (e.g., 65% for team A, 35% for team B), a recommended captain pick, and a recommended vice-captain.
Captain pick predictions for today's match
The captain pick prediction is the single most useful output of the prediction engine, because the 2x captain multiplier amplifies the entire performance of one player.
For high-stakes matches (playoffs, finals, marquee clashes), the engine typically recommends a safer captain pick with a 60-70% confidence level. For regular matches, the engine may recommend a contrarian pick with a 50-60% confidence level.
The prediction is updated every 6 hours on match day, and the final prediction is locked 30 minutes before toss.
Win probability modelling
The win probability model uses a combination of run rate differential, wickets in hand, and overs remaining to estimate the probability of each team winning at any point in the match.
The model is most accurate in the middle overs (6-15), where the match state is most informative about the final outcome. The model is less accurate in the powerplay (first 6 overs) and the death overs (last 5 overs).
The win probability is the input for the in-match fantasy decision: do you need to take more risk on your captain pick, or do you need to play safe?
Pre-match prediction workflow
The pre-match prediction workflow is: (1) check the prediction engine output 24 hours before the match, (2) check the team news and pitch report 6 hours before the match, (3) check the AI captain suggestion 1 hour before the match, (4) make your final picks 30 minutes before the lock-in deadline.
The workflow takes 5-10 minutes total, and the workflow is the right discipline for every match.
Frequently asked questions
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